Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, is the broadest measure of a country’s economic output. It adds up the total value of all goods and services produced within a nation’s borders over a given period. Most economists consider annual GDP growth of 2% to 3% as a healthy range for the United States. Growth that stays below 2% for a prolonged period has certain concerns attached, in that the economy could stagnate, i.e., businesses invest less, job creation slows, wage gains weaken, and living standards improve only modestly or not at all. On the other side, growth that remains well above 3% for a sustained stretch can create different problems. Problems such as factories, infrastructure, and the labor force running near full capacity, meaning labor markets tighten, wages and prices start rising faster than productivity, and inflation can accelerate. When that happens, the Federal Reserve typically responds by raising interest rates to cool demand. This action can slow housing, business investment, and hiring. Right now, U.S. GDP growth sits comfortably inside the preferred 2% to 3% range with recent readings showing the economy expanding at a solid, sustainable pace that most analysts describe as strong without the overheating risks that would require aggressive interest-rate hikes.

             Another economic factor to consider is the unemployment rate. Economists generally consider a 4.0% to 5.0% unemployment rate ‘acceptable.’ Lower unemployment makes common sense and obviously means more people are employed, but a certain percentage of unemployment is part of a nation’s economy. The news flash here is that during 2025, unemployment bounced between 4.1% and 4.3%. In September of 2026, the rate stood at 4.2%. In unemployment, there is no prolific change that would hamper or hurt the economy. So, if GDP isn’t crashing and unemployment isn’t running rampant, what are people concerned about economically? Maybe inflation…

             Consumer Price Index (CPI - is an economic metric that measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. It is a primary tool used to measure inflation and track the purchasing power of a currency). When studying CPI inflation metrics, there are two methods of measurement, core inflation and headline inflation. Headline inflation tracks the entire consumer basket, capturing what households actually feel at the grocery store checkout and the fuel pump. Core inflation deliberately strips out food and energy costs to isolate the underlying, long-term trend. If headline and core inflation are both at 2%, the economy is generally considered stable. If headline inflation jumps to 5% but core inflation stays at 2%, it usually means a temporary event, like an oil shortage or a bad harvest, is driving up specific prices, but the broader economy isn't structurally overheating. Economists generally agree that lower inflation is good, but that no inflation would be detrimental to the United States economy. An example of this is the Great Depression. As a rule, economists avoid targeting 0% inflation because a slightly positive rate provides some major economic benefits: Prevents Deflation: 1. Deflation (falling prices) is economically catastrophic. If consumers know cars or houses will be cheaper next year, they stop spending. Businesses then lay off workers, causing a downward economic spiral. A 2% buffer keeps the economy safely away from deflation. 2. Encourages Spending and Investing: When money loses a tiny, predictable amount of value over time, it incentivizes people and corporations to invest their cash into stocks, real estate, or business expansions rather than hoarding it under a mattress.

             Between 2025 and 2026, core inflation numbers have been relatively steady. (Core inflation excludes food and energy.) The average core inflation in 2025 was 2.8%. In September of 2026 we were looking at 2.6% core inflation. Great numbers and very steady. Then there is headline inflation. (Headline inflation includes food and energy.) 2026 headline inflation has skyrocketed compared to 2025’s numbers. 2025 headline inflation averaged 2.6% and it has been massively outdone by September 2026, 3.7% inflation. This hike in headline inflation is primarily due to the current aggressive energy supply shock.

             In the day and age that we live in, information is everywhere, but truth and factual data are not as prominent as opinion and agendas. There is a ton of negativity surrounding the current economy in the United States and the data reveals that some complaints are justified but that overall, the economy is perceived as bad based on public sentiment influenced by mainstream news, not necessarily because of a ton of real problems. There are some important indicators of changes that should be made right away, but in large part most of the economic concern stems from energy prices directly related to the Russia-Ukraine and Iran War(s). It is important to notice that when a war affects energy production and/or transportation energy prices trend up globally due to the interconnectedness of the energy market and energy consumption. But this increase is temporary, not permanent.

             The Iran war in coordination with the Russia-Ukraine war has assisted in causing energy prices to skyrocket, Congressional spending hasn’t helped, (Congress absolutely needs to balance the budget), and the U.S. needs to quickly work towards energy independence. On this note, the United States has a bottleneck problem with energy, specifically oil tied to fuel, in the sense that we need to build the infrastructure necessary to take the vast amount of light sweet crude oil we currently produce in our country and refine it into usable energy without the need to export and import. However, this reality means that there is no quick fix. There are adjustments to ease current energy costs but without foresight and long-term infrastructure being built the percentage chance that energy prices fluctuate, and trend up is high. Swiftly finishing the Iran war and cutting Congressional spending are a couple major components that would help stabilize energy prices. Incentivizing increased U.S. infrastructure and over time, limiting the need to import oil to refine for fuels will help to better stabilize U.S. energy prices long-term. Increased infrastructure will not eliminate energy price fluctuation, but it will massively help to control and keep prices low over time. It’s the strategy for future success and to better mitigate price hikes.